3D Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on the Coast of NSW

                                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                                 Ben Bartlett - October 2007

                          

                        Abstract                   Method                   Results               Conclusion                   Future Study                 Contact

Conclusion

3D modelling for forecasting the effects of climate change has great potential for providing reliable, appropriate data and subsequent predictions in a visually effective manner. ALS data provides appropriate data from which DEMs can be generated. Once TINs that are representative of sea level are transformed onto these DEMs, a variety of useful information regarding inundation due to sea level rise can be extracted.

By identifying the features that are subject to inundation in a particular scenario, a time frame can be established when this may be likely to happen. Additionally, the economic cost that may be incurred due to this inundation can also be predicted. Consequently, this information can be used when assessing the risk that an area of land may be subject to and, potentially, can form a basis from which preventative planning can be made and engineering solutions can be derived.

The methodology described in this thesis to represent rises in sea level has shortcomings which limit its reliability and its accuracy. This would need modification for future investigations.

ArcGIS 9.2 has limitations for potential end-users. ArcGIS cannot process files that exceed 40 Mb in size, hence large-scale modelling cannot be performed using this software. However, for smaller scale modelling, such as the size of those generated in this thesis, it is possible to use it, albeit it is still time consuming to run. It has been recommended that another modelling program be sought for future investigations.